Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin traded at around $62,504 and moved between $61,794 and $63,063 during the day. The recovery remained limited after sellers rejected the asset above $64,000, forcing a rapid pullback towards the lower end of the July band.
Brent oil rose above $85 per barrel after US President Donald Trump announced the return of the naval blockade against Iran and the introduction of a 20 percent surcharge on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising fuel costs may complicate the inflation outlook and reduce the likelihood of loose monetary policy. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be announced at 15.30 Türkiye time. Then, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 17:00. Stronger-than-expected inflation or hawkish statements could push bond yields higher and put pressure on Bitcoin, while weak data could help buyers push through resistance.
According to industry data, there was a net outflow of $424.7 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on July 13. Of this amount, $185.5 million came from BlackRock's IBIT fund and $245.6 million came from Fidelity's FBTC fund. The draws reversed the previous session's $90.4 million inflow and squeezed a key source of spot demand.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains below $63,131, which coincides with the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from the May peak of $82,844 to the June bottom of $57,765. A daily close above this level would strengthen the recovery chart and bring the $64,000 to $64,690 zone back into focus.
The daily MACD line has crossed above the signal line but both lines remain below zero and the positive histogram has narrowed in the recent pullback. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading below the Supertrend hurdle at $64,004, while the Relative Strength Index is below its average at 39.71 and 44.68. The nearest support is located around $61,560, with the main ceiling of the band located at $64,690. Liquidation heat maps show dense leverage clusters below the price between $61,000 and $61,500 and above it between $64,800 and $65,000.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin is still defending $62,500, but warned that a daily close between $62,000 and $62,500 would be negative for Bitcoin. Another analyst, Lennaert Snyder, pointed out that open positions increased in the last decline, spot sales increased and the funding rate remained positive. Snyder wrote that he plans to short sell for a reaction towards $60,400 if the CPI data creates enough volatility and moves the price to the $63,500 region.
A break below $61,560 could reveal Snyder's target of $60,400, followed by a monthly open near $58,700 and a daily low of $57,765. New attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, a new jump in oil, ongoing ETF outflows or a hawkish inflation response increase the likelihood of this move. On the upside, buyers must first reclaim $63,131 and then overcome the Supertrend at $64,004 and the horizontal resistance at $64,690 with a close. Until these levels fall, Bitcoin remains trapped between liquidation liquidity on both sides, and macro data will largely determine which cluster is tested first.